Alaron Trading Corp Forecasts $1 Gasoline

To be fair, it should be pointed out that almost everyone who made forecasts 18 months ago were wrong.  So listening to predictions from the same group of folks may not make a lot of sense.

But... the prospect of a future where $1 gasoline is the norm warms the heart during this Holiday Season.  Alaron trading made this startling prediction today, bringing smiles to many faces.

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The price of gasoline, which soared to above $4 per gallon in July and hit motorists and industry hard, could retail at an average $1 per gallon next year, brokerage Alaron Trading Corp forecast on Thursday.

Alaron energy analyst Phil Flynn told a conference in Chicago he expected crude oil prices to range between $25 and $50 per barrel in 2009, with the short-term target being $35.

"We're not going to see commodities turn around overnight. We're entering a new era in commodities with more stable prices and we will not see the big spikes in prices we've seen in the past," Flynn said.

Crude oil plunged about $108 per barrel, or nearly 75 percent, from a record high $147 a barrel in July to below $40 on Thursday as global consumption continues to slow.

Interestingly, Alaron analysts do not see the fall of commodity prices affecting grains.  Instead, they see stronger demand and rising prices.

Alaron grains analyst Tim Hannagan gave a contrarian view for the grain market, saying he expected wheat, corn and soybean prices to move higher next year. That's in stark contrast to the past year's trend of grains almost mirroring the moves in crude oil and other commodities.

"We've divorced ourselves from the other commodities," Hannagan told Reuters.

Hannagan said corn prices in the spring of 2009 would range from $4.60 to $5.25 and he sees a summer high of $6 to $7 per bushel. Corn futures prices recently dropped below $4 per bushel.

He pegged soy prices next spring between $10 and $11 per bushel and a summer high of $12 to $13 compared with prices below $9 this week. Also, wheat prices from March-June will average between $7.50 and $8.75, up from roughly $5.60 per bushel on Thursday.

Prices for grain and soybeans have fallen over 50 percent since record highs were set earlier this year but strong global demand for protein will boost prices, he said.



 Commodities  | Comments (0)

Eric J Lohry,  Des Moines, IA   December 18th, 2008 10:40:50 PM
After melamine ravaged the Chinese dairy industry this year, it seemed that everyone in America was now familiar with the previously obscure substance.

Apparently the folks at MainstaysTM  didn't get a chance to review this exhaustive press coverage before putting this "Melamine Mixing Bowl Set" on Walmart's store shelves!



Image:Melamine for Dinner, Anyone?

Since melamine is a plastic resin, I am sure that it is safe in this application.  Hopefully the consumers realize this!

 International Trade  |  Miscellaneous  | Comments (1)

Eric J Lohry,  Sioux City Office   October 24th, 2008 03:30:04 PM
Visitors to Sioux City in the 1970's were greeted by this huge pile of manure just off of Interstate 29.  The "fertilizer" mountain was large because the Sioux City Stockyards was one of the world's biggest.  The owners were painfully aware that this symbol of economic prosperity may be taken wrong and so they erected a sign to remind the folks of the importance of the "Yards" to area commerce.

Image:Sioux City Stockyards a ’Boost’ to Siouxland Economy

The sign reads: "This Fertilizer is a reminder of the $500 MILLION Annual Boost to our Siouxland Economy by the Sioux City Stockyards".

 Livestock  |  Miscellaneous  | Comments (2)

Eric J Lohry,  Sioux City Office   October 17th, 2008 08:26:03 AM
Grain prices tumbled after the USDA issued a report predicting rising grain stocks despite serious flooding in the midwestern United States this summer.  According to Marketwatch:

Corn production is forecasted at 12.2 billion bushels this year, up 1% from last month but 7% below 2007, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday.

Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 154 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels from September and 2.9 bushels above last year, the USDA said. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, behind 2004, and production will be the second largest, behind last year...

Soybean production is forecast at 2.98 billion bushels, up 2% from the September forecast and up 11% from last year, the USDA reported. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record.
Based on Oct. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.5 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 2.2 bushels from 2007




 Commodities  | Comments (2)

Eric J Lohry,  North Sioux City, South Dakota   October 10th, 2008 01:51:22 PM
Our Advertisement as Seen in Feedstuffs




Image:As Seen in Feedstuffs (More...)

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 Fermented Products  |  Nutraferma  | Comments (1)

Eric J Lohry,  North Sioux City, South Dakota   October 7th, 2008 04:40:34 PM
Starting this week, shoppers in the US will see more foods labeled with "country of origin."  

Although the law was years in the making, it seems timely considering the recent food scares, such as the Chinese melamine debacle.  Of course, many of the food scares are domestic in origin anyway, such as the tomatoes suspected of  food poisoning.



 International Trade  | Comments (0)

Eric J Lohry,  North Sioux City, South Dakota   October 1st, 2008 09:43:39 AM
As the general economy slides, so have commodities, bringing relief to livestock producers caught in the squeeze.  

Soy futures (and grains in general) continue a general decline that started weeks ago, but at a much sharper rate.  Other commodities have fallen, such as oil, as the  world economy cools demand.  Some livestock prices - live hogs for example - have seen more stable prices.

Image:Livestock Producers Will love This!



 Commodities  |  International Trade  |  Livestock  | Comments (0)

Eric J Lohry,  North Sioux City, South Dakota   September 30th, 2008 11:46:31 AM
According to an article at flex-news-food.com, Gary Johnson, Senior Director of Worldwide Supply Chain for McDonald's Corporation, stated that "natural, or hormone and antibiotic free [meat], is valued in the UK, Germany, France, and Australia, and trending that way in the U.S. as well".  Johnson was speaking at the World Meat Conference at Cape Town, South Africa last week.  

McDonald's served 56 million customers per day in 2007 and "is continuing to grow rapidly".  

The world wide demand for meat raised without antibiotics is driving several research projects at Nutraferma.  Our customers have pressed us for solutions as consumer demands pressure the industry.  

Nutraferma's products, PepSoyGen, Natufermen and Lactocare, offer high quality direct fed microbials that assist livestock producers struggling to manage health without using antibiotics.



 International Trade  |  Livestock  |  Nutraferma  |  Protein Products  | Comments (2)

Eric J Lohry,  Sioux City Office   September 30th, 2008 07:33:00 AM